1. Voter Participation (self-reported)--as % of voting age citizen population (or voting eligible population: VEP)

 

Elec.Yr.

‘92

‘94

‘96

‘98

‘00

‘02

‘04

‘06

‘08

‘10

‘12

Voted

68

48.3

58.4

45.3

59.5

46.1

63.8

47.8

63.6

45.5

61.8

Reg’d

75

67.1

70.9

67.1

69.5

66.5

72.1

67.6

71.0

65.1

71.2

Vote/Reg

90

72.0

82.3

67.5

85.5

69.4

88.5

70.8

89.6

69.9

86.8

Turnout

58.1

41.1

51.6

39.4

55.3

39.5

60.9

41.3

61.7

41.0+

58.7


 

    (Census Bureau statistics, "Population Characteristics: Voting and Registration in the Election[s] of  November 2002 [2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012]”; turnout statistics, GMU United States Elections Project, http://elections.gmu.edu/voter_turnout.htm)

 

2. Registration/Voting (self reported) increases with age and education, 2004 (Census Bureau, supra)

            (% of eligible voters, i.e., U.S. citizens)

            a. Age:            18-24 yr. old (57.6/46.7%)--->65-74 yr. old (79.5/73.3%)  

           

            b. Education:   Less than High School (52.9/39.5%)--->Bachelors Degree (82.1/77.5%)

 

3. Differences in Voter Participation (self-reported) (Census Bureau, supra)

            (Voting Age Population (“VAP”), 1972-1980; VEP, 1994-2008)

Year

1972

1976

1978

1980

 

 

 

 

 

 

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

VEP

2012

Male

64

59

46

59

 

 

 

 

 

 

48.2

57.0

44.9

58.1

45.6

62.1

46.9

61.5

44.8

103

59.7

Fem

62

58

45

59

 

 

 

 

 

 

48.5

59.6

45.7

60.7

46.6

65.4

48.6

65.7

46.2

112

63.7

White

64

60

47

60

 

 

 

 

 

 

50.0

60.7

47.1

60.5

47.5

65.4

51.6

66.1

46.7

173.4

62.2

Black

52

48

37

50

 

 

 

 

 

 

38.9

53.0

41.9

56.8

42.3

60.0

41.0

64.7

43.5

26.9

66.2

Hisp.

38

43

34

44

 

 

 

 

 

 

34.0

44.3

32.8

45.1

30.4

47.2

32.3

49.9

31.2

23.3

48.0

Asian

 

 

 

 

 

2006

2008

2010

2012

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

30.8

8.25

47.3

Coll

84

80

64

80

 

61.1

77.0

57.7

NA

NE

49.3

59.3

45.1

60.5

45.5

64.1

46.9

62.9

45.5

39.0

62.3

Grade

47

44

35

43

 

27.4

39.4

24.6

NA

MW

50.0

61.1

48.9

63.2

49.1

67.8

53.2

66.3

47.1

48.5

65.0

18-24

48

38

20

36

 

22.1

48.5

21.3

41.2

South

43.2

54.9

40.8

57.2

44.9

61.0

43.9

62.6

42.6

80.0

60.7

65+

64

62

56

65

 

64.3*

72.4

60.8

73.5

West

54.5

60.3

49.2

58.1

45.4

64.0

49.2

63.3

48.7

47.6

60.0

            * For 2006 & 2008, voting age covers 65 to 74 years of age; 2010 covers 65+.

4. Eligible Voters throughout U.S. History.

     1789-1829       Propertied White Adult Males                             1920-1971       Adults (Age 21 and over)           

     1829-1870       White Adult Males                                               1971-Present    All citizens over age 18       

     1870-1920       Adult Males                       

1. Party Identification: Is the New Deal Coalition holding together?

 

Proportion of coalition voters voting Democratic, 1956-2012. (Wilson, 4th ed., p. 192 <Gallup; Bold statistics from Vital Statistics; 2000 & 2004 stats from CNN exit polls; 2008 from MSNBC)

 

 

Elections

56

60

64

68

72

76

80

84

88

92

96

00

04

08

12

Southerners

49

51

52

31

29

54

44

36

41

42

46

43

42

45

NA

Catholics

51

78

76

59

48

54

42

45

47

44

53

50

47

54

50

Jews

77

89

89

85

66

64

45

67

64

78

78

79

74

78

69

Non-W/Blk

61

68

94

85

87

83

85

89

86

82

84

90

88

95

93

Union House

57

65

73

56

46

59

48

53

57

55

59

59

59

59

58

 

2. Party Identification --Strong and Weak Partisanship (<American National Election Studies)

Party Identification 7-Point Scale  1952-2008

 

'52

'54

'56

'58

'60

'62

'64

'66

'68

'70

'72

'74

'76

'78

'80

'82

'84

'86

'88

'90

'92

'94

'96

'98

'00

'02

'04

'08

Strong Democrat :

23

23

22

28

21

24

27

18

20

20

15

18

15

15

18

20

17

18

18

20

18

15

18

19

19

17

17

19

Weak Democrat :

26

26

24

23

26

24

25

28

26

24

25

21

25

24

23

24

20

22

18

19

17

18

19

18

15

17

16

15

Independent Democrat :

10

9

7

7

6

8

9

9

10

10

11

13

12

14

11

11

11

10

12

12

14

13

14

14

15

16

17

17

Independent Independent:

5

8

9

8

10

8

8

12

11

13

15

18

16

16

15

13

13

14

12

12

13

11

10

12

13

7

10

11

Independent Republican :

8

6

9

5

7

6

6

7

9

8

10

9

10

10

10

8

12

11

13

12

12

12

12

11

13

13

12

12

Weak Republican :

14

15

15

17

14

17

14

15

15

15

13

14

14

13

14

14

15

15

14

15

14

15

15

16

12

16

12

13

Strong Republican :

14

13

16

12

16

13

11

10

10

9

10

8

9

8

9

10

12

11

14

10

11

15

12

10

12

15

16

13

N  

1689

1088

1690

1737

1864

1237

1536

1263

1531

1490

2695

2492

2833

2269

1612

1403

2228

2157

2026

1965

2473

1780

1706

1267

1790

1466

1194

2293

PERCENTAGE WITHIN STUDY YEAR
Table 2A.1
Source: The American National Election Studies
Link to the ASCII text version of this table  

 3. Party Identification by Selected Factors, 2004 (VS 2005-2006, Tab. 3-2, Gallup Poll; National Annenberg Election Survey 2004 & National Annenberg Election Survey 2008 in Winneg & Jamieson, “Party Identification in the 2008 Pres. Elec.”, in Presidential Studies, Vol 40 (June 2010) )

                        2004 (Gallup)                         2000 (NAES)                          2004 (NAES)                                     2008 (NAES)

 

GOP

IND

DEM

 

GOP

IND

DEM

 

GOP

IND

DEM

 

GOP

IND

DEM

Men

38

33

30

 

32.1

30.0

28.0

 

31.7

29.2

28.4

 

28.4

32.7

30.4

Women

35

26

39

 

28.0

23.9

38.8

 

28.3

23.3

38.1

 

26.4

25.2

41.2

Education

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NoCollege

33

29

38

 

26

25

38

 

27.1

24.9

35.7

 

24.2

28.1

38.4

SomeColl

39

29

32

 

32

27

30

 

31.9

26.9

30.7

 

29.5

28.6

34.3

CollegeGrad

42

28

30

Coll+

34

29

30

 

32.8

27.5

32.6

 

29.8

30.0

34.7

PostGrad

32

31

37

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Race

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

White

41

29

31

 

33

28

29

 

34.9

27.2

28.0

 

32.7

30.3

29.8

Black

6

27

67

 

5

19

68

 

5.4

18.7

65.2

 

4.8

18.1

70.9

Hispanic

 

 

 

 

22

21

46

 

24

23.7

40.7

 

17.7

23.7

47.3

National

36

29

35

 

29.9

26.7

33.7

 

29.9

26.1

33.5

 

27.4

28.8

36.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ideological Identification

1. Liberal-Conservative Self-Identification (<American National Election Studies)

Liberal-Conservative Self-Identification 1972-2008

 

'72

'74

'76

'78

'80

'82

'84

'86

'88

'90

'92

'94

'96

'98

'00

'02

'04

'08

Extremely Liberal :

1

2

1

2

2

1

2

1

2

1

2

1

1

2

2

2

2

3

Liberal :

7

11

7

8

6

6

7

6

6

7

8

6

7

7

9

12

9

10

Slightly Liberal :

10

8

8

10

9

8

9

11

9

8

10

7

10

9

9

9

8

9

Moderate, Middle of Road:

27

26

25

27

20

22

23

28

22

24

23

26

24

28

23

22

25

22

Slightly Conservative :

15

12

12

14

13

13

14

15

15

14

15

14

15

15

12

10

12

12

Conservative :

10

12

11

11

13

12

13

13

14

10

13

19

15

13

15

21

16

17

Extremely Conservative :

1

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

3

2

3

3

3

2

3

4

3

3

DK, Haven't Thought :

28

27

33

27

36

36

30

25

30

33

27

24

25

23

27

22

25

25

N  

2155

2478

2839

2284

1565

1400

2229

2170

2035

1967

2483

1783

1712

1280

849

1490

1211

2319

PERCENTAGE WITHIN STUDY YEAR
Table 3.1
Source: The American National Election Studies
Link to the ASCII text version of this table  

2. Relationship between Ideological and Party Identification, 1984  and 1996

(Flanigan and Zingale, Political Behavior of the American Electorate, 6th and 9th edition<Center for Political Studies 1984 and 1996 National Election Study). See Wilson, Brief Version,9th ed., p.138, for stats comparing party delegates to party voters in 2004.

 

                                    1984                                                                                        1996

                    Democrat   Independent   Republican                    Democrat    Independent            Republican

Liberal                 14%         8             4         = 26%                          16                    07                    02        =25

Moderate             13           12            7         = 32                              12                    13                    06        =31

Conservative          9          13            21        = 43                             08                    12                    25        =45

                             36         33            32                                              36                    32                    33          101